Distribution and habitat use of the Madagascar Peregrine Falcon: first estimates for area of habitat and population size

Accurately demarcating species distributions has long been at the core of ecology. Yet our understanding of the factors limiting species range limits is incomplete, especially for tropical species in the Global South. Human-driven threats to the survival of many taxa are increasing, particularly habitat loss and climate change. Identifying distributional range limits of at-risk and data-limited species using Species Distribution Models (SDMs) can thus inform spatial conservation planning to mitigate these threats. The Madagascar Peregrine Falcon (Falco peregrinus radama) is the resident sub-species of the Peregrine Falcon complex distributed across Madagascar, Mayotte, and the Comoros Islands. Currently, there are significant knowledge gaps regarding its distribution, habitat preferences and population size. Here, we use point process regression models and ordination to identify Madagascar Peregrine Falcon environmental range limits and propose a population size estimate based on inferred habitat. From our models, the core range of the Madagascar Peregrine Falcon extends across the central upland plateau of Madagascar with a patchier range across coastal and low-elevation areas. Range-wide habitat use indicated that the Madagascar Peregrine Falcon prefers areas of high elevation and aridity, coupled with high vegetation heterogeneity and > 95 % herbaceous landcover, but generally avoids areas of > 30 % cultivated land and > 10 % mosaic forest. Based on inferred high-class habitat, we estimate this habitat area could potentially support a population size ranging between 150-300 pairs. Following International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List guidelines, we recommend this sub-species be classed as Vulnerable, due to its small population size. Despite its potentially large range, the Madagascar Peregrine has specialized habitat requirements and would benefit from targeted conservation measures based on spatial models in order to maintain viable populations.