Evaluating the use of uncertainty visualization for exploratory analysis of land cover change

Extensive research on geodata uncertainty has been conducted in the past decades, mostly related to modeling, quantifying, and communicating uncertainty. But findings on if and how users can incorporate this information into spatial analyses are still rare. In this paper we address these questions with a focus on land cover change analysis. We conducted semi-structured interviews with three expert groups dealing with change analysis in the fields of climate research, urban development, and vegetation monitoring. During the interviews we used a software prototype to show change scenarios that the experts had analyzed before, extended by visual depiction of uncertainty related to land cover change.This paper describes the study, summarizes results, and discusses findings as well as the study method. Participants came up with several ideas for applications that could be supported by uncertainty, for example, identification of erroneous change, description of change detection algorithm characteristics, or optimization of change detection parameters. Regarding the aspect of reasoning with uncertainty in land cover change data the interviewees saw potential in better-informed hypotheses and insights about change. Communication of uncertainty information to users was seen as critical, depending on the users' role and expertize. We judge semi-structured interviews to be suitable for the purpose of this study and emphasize the potential of qualitative methods (workshops, focus groups etc.) for future uncertainty visualization studies. Expert study including a software prototype to analyze changes+uncertainty.Participants suggested using uncertainty for optimizing change detection results.Participants suggested ways of using uncertainty for reasoning with change data.Requirements for practical use: better user acceptance and support in standard GIS.We recommend use of qualitative methods for evaluating uncertainty visualization.