Detection and quantification of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater influent in relation to reported COVID-19 incidence in Finland

Wastewater-based surveillance is a cost-effective concept for monitoring COVID-19 pandemics at a population level. Here, SARS-CoV-2 RNA was monitored from a total of 693 wastewater (WW) influent samples from 28 wastewater treatment plants (WWTP, N = 21-42 samples per WWTP) in Finland from August 2020 to May 2021, covering WW of ca. 3.3 million inhabitants ([~] 60% of the Finnish population). The relative quantity of SARS-CoV-2 RNA fragments in the 24h-composite samples was determined by using the ultrafiltration method followed by nucleic acid extraction and RT-qPCR assay targeted with N2-assay. SARS-CoV-2 RNA signals at each WWTP were compared over time to the numbers of new and confirmed COVID-19 cases in the sewer network area. Over the 10-month surveillance period, the detection rate of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in WW was 79% (including 6% uncertain results), while only 24% of all samples exhibited gene copy (GC) numbers above the quantification limit. The range of the SARS-CoV-2 detection rate in WW varied from 33% (including 10% uncertain results) in Pietarsaari to 100% in Espoo. Only six out of 693 WW samples were positive with SARS-COV-2 RNA when the reported COVID-19 case number from the preceding 14 days was zero. Overall, the 14-day COVID-19 incidence was 7, 18 and 36 cases within the sewer network area when the probability to detect SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater samples was 50%, 75% and 95%, respectively. The quantification of SARS-CoV-2 GC required significantly more COVID-19 cases: the quantification rate was 50%, 75% and 95% when the 14-day incidence was 110, 152 and 223 COVID-19 cases, respectively, per 100 000 persons. Multiple linear regression confirmed the relationship between the COVID-19 incidence and the SARS-CoV-2 GC quantified in WW at 15 out of 28 WWTPs (overall R2 = 0.36, p < 0.001). At four of the 13 WWTPs where a significant relationship was not found, the GC of SARS-CoV-2 RNA remained below the quantification limit during the whole study period. In the five other WWTPs, the sewer coverage was less than 80% of the total population in the area and thus the COVID-19 cases may have been inhabitants from the areas not covered. Based on the results obtained, WW-based surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 could be used as an indicator for local and national COVID-19 incidence trends. Importantly, the determination of SARS-CoV-2 RNA fragments from WW is a powerful and non-invasive public health surveillance measure, independent of possible changes in the clinical testing strategies or in the willingness of individuals to be tested for COVID-19.