Predictive model for the growth kinetics of Staphylococcus aureus in raw pork developed using Integrated Pathogen Modeling Program (IPMP) 2013

Abstract A predictive model was performed to describe the growth of Staphylococcus aureus in raw pork by using Integrated Pathogen Modeling Program 2013 and a polynomial model as a secondary predictive model. S. aureus requires approximately 180 h to reach 5–6 log CFU/g at 10 °C. At 15 °C and 25 °C, approximately 48 and 20 h, respectively, are required to cause food poisoning. Predicted data using the Gompertz model was the most accurate in this study. For lag time (LT) model, bias factor ( B f ) and accuracy factor ( A f ) values were both 1.014, showing that the predictions were within a reliable range. For specific growth rate (SGR) model, B f and A f were 1.188 and 1.190, respectively. Additionally, both B f and A f values of the LT and SGR models were close to 1, indicating that IPMP Gompertz model is more adequate for predicting the growth of S. aureus on raw pork than other models.