Methods for Comparing Simulated and Observed Satellite Infrared Brightness Temperatures and What Do They Tell Us

AbstractIn this study, the utility of dimensioned, neighborhood-based, and object-based forecast verification metrics for cloud verification is assessed using output from the experimental High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRRx) model over a 1-day period containing different modes of convection. This is accomplished by comparing observed and simulated Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) 10.7-μm brightness temperatures (BTs). Traditional dimensioned metrics such as mean absolute error (MAE) and mean bias error (MBE) were used to assess the overall model accuracy. The MBE showed that the HRRRx BTs for forecast hours 0 and 1 are too warm compared with the observations, indicating a lack of cloud cover, but rapidly become too cold in subsequent hours because of the generation of excessive upper-level cloudiness. Neighborhood and object-based statistics were used to investigate the source of the HRRRx cloud cover errors. The neighborhood statistic fractions skill score (FSS) showed that displ...