Estimating transportation carbon efficiency (TCE) across the Belt and Road Initiative countries: An integrated approach of modified three-stage epsilon-based measurement model

Abstract Transportation systems are vital links for intercountry. However, the transportation industry is associated with high energy consumption and carbon emissions. In this paper, the transportation carbon efficiency (TCE) across the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries during 2005–2017 is estimated by modifying a three-stage epsilon-based measurement model, and the carbon emission reduction potential (CERP) is identified. Based on the results, countries are classified into four categories by comparing a country's TCE and CERP with the average of all BRI countries. The results show that the average TCE of BRI countries is only 0.341, while their average CERP is 0.750, which is tremendous. It also shows that the higher the income levels, the more prone countries are to have a higher TCE. By considering the differences among the countries' environmental factors, TCEs, and the current state or trends of the CERPs, customized low-carbon policies are proposed to increase the TCE and reduce emissions.