Potential mass movements on the Palinuro volcanic chain (southern Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy) and consequent tsunami generation

Abstract The Palinuro volcanic chain (PVC) is located about 80 km offshore the Campania region (Italy) in the southern sector of the Tyrrhenian Sea. The chain consists of 15 volcanic edifices aligned in an E-W direction with two distinct major seamounts (Palinuro and Glabro). They cover a 90 km long and 20 km wide area, with a present-day volume of 2700 km3. Palinuro volcanism emplaced between 0.8 and 0.3 Ma, although shallow seismicity and hydrothermalism indicate an ongoing volcanic activity. A geomorphological analysis of the volcanic chain and data from a multichannel seismic profile reveal large volumes of buried chaotic material suggesting gravity mass sliding from the volcano flanks and slide scars. A stability analysis of the Palinuro flanks has been carried out to determine the sectors potentially prone to sliding in case of shallow volcanic earthquakes. Landslides are simulated by adopting a scenario-based approach. Tsunamis induced by these mass movements and their propagation across the Tyrrhenian Sea are modeled. Results suggest that shallow earthquakes (M ~4.6–4.8) are able to destabilize the flanks of the volcanic chain generating slope failures. Sliding volumes in the order of 1.5 km3 and 2.4 km3 may induce waves as high as 1.5 and 6 m, respectively, along the peri-Tyrrhenian coast. Our results underline the need for further investigations on the stability of the submarine volcanoes of the Tyrrhenian basin. These volcanoes are still poorly known although their instability could trigger large tsunamis along the southern Italy coastal sectors. Our recommendation is that multiparamertic monitoring networks on PVC and periodic oceanic cruises should be put into action, and further that a systematic evaluation of the tsunami hazard related to possible sliding phenomena on the flanks of the Tyrrhenian seamounts should be performed.