Impact of uncertainties on greenhouse gas mitigation potential of biogas production from agricultural resources.

The production of biogas as a renewable resource has emerged rapidly in Germany and other countries with the expectation to substantially mitigate anthropogenic greenhouse gases. However, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions due to the cultivation of energy crops or leakage at biogas plants may counteract the mitigation effect of biogas use. This study analyzes the GHG mitigation potential of using biogas based on cattle slurry and corn (Zea mays L.) to produce electrical and thermal energy. The impact of the feedstock chosen, the storage facilities, thermal energy use, and land use change were analyzed by evaluating different scenarios. A special focus is provided with an uncertainty analysis, where the impact of uncertainty of 14 parameters on the variability of the mitigation potential was analyzed with Monte-Carlo simulations.