Fish Migration Model Based on Time Series

The rising ocean temperature forces marine organisms to migrate north to colder waters in search of more appropriate areas. As two important fish in the Scottish fishing, the potential migration of mackerel and herring will damage local fishery to some extent. For small fishing companies that lack refrigeration in boats, the relocation of stocks may be too far beyond the reach, so the decrease of fishing opportunities can be fatal. Therefore, as consultants, we need to predict the future fish migration and make recommendations for the business mode of small fishing companies and fishermen. We divide the area around and south of Scotland by latitude and longitude. Then we use global sea surface temperature (SST) data to calculate the average temperature of each region in fishing season over the past 11 years. We establish time serious into the basic SST Model, extract the trend of the SST in different regions with the change of years and draw the fitting curve and prediction curve. Based on this, we made effective prediction of the migration location in 50 years.