Análisis del impacto de las olas de calor sobre la mortalidad de la ciudad de Madrid durante el período 1990-2009

Background: After the heat wave of 2003, many European countries have implemented plans for monitoring and controlling the effects of heat waves (PMSEHW) to mitigate the effects of heat on health and few countries have assessed their impact. The aim of study was to evaluate the PMSEHW impact in the mortality attributed to heat. Method: To evaluate the mortality attributed to heat during the period 1990-2009, we conducted a time series analysis using ARIMA models with exogenous variables (temperature). We examined the impact of high temperatures on mortality before and after the year 2004, year of the implementation of PVCEOC. Results: The impact attributable to the heat wave in 2003 was 22.39% increase in mortality per degree oC, with an intensity of 8.2 oC. Some heat waves prior to 2003 were higher in intensity, so in the years 1991, 1992 and 1995 the intensity of heat waves was 25.9 oC, 8.3 oC and 12.5 oC respectively. Heat waves subsequent to 2003 had lower intensity, and the 2005, with a heat wave intensity of 4.5 oC greater impact was observed, which was 45.71% increase in mortality per degree oC. Conclusions: Finally, we can not say, that, in the city of Madrid, the implementation of PVEOC results in a decrease of the mortality attributable to high temperatures.