Catch forecasting and relationship between water temperature and catch fluctuations in snow crab Chionoecetes opilio in the western Sea of Japan

Catch forecasting and the relationship between water temperature and catch in the snow crab Chionoecetes opilio in the western Sea of Japan were investigated. Catch was used as an index of abundance on the basis of high correlations between catch per unit effort for the period when the latter data were available. The pattern of fluctuations, in catches and index coincided well with each other. Therefore, catch data were regarded as an index of abundance and the correlation coefficient between catch and water temperature was calculated at several depths from 1964 to 1999. Catch forecasting models were composed using significantly correlated variables with the following results: (i) in April and September, the catch showed high positive correlation with water temperatures (depth 50, 100, and 200 m, time lag 4–6 years); and (ii) a model using water temperatures in April alone (depth 100 m, time lag 4–7 years) forecasted the catches with a coefficient of determination of 0.504, where models using more variables (water temperatures in the 2 months and catches) showed a coefficient of 0.587 at most. Environmental conditions during the early life stages of the snow crab are thought to deeply influence the fluctuations, in abundance.