Demographic Ageing in the Mediterranean: The End of the Spatial Dichotomy Between the Shores?

The Mediterranean is too often presented as a heterogeneous geographical area. Demography has helped to create this narrative of a Mediterranean of contrasts in which the different shores are systematically opposed: a northern shore in decline, with low fertility rates and an ageing population, as opposed to the young and fertile southern and eastern shores, which are experiencing rapid growth. However, this spatial dichotomy is gradually disappearing due to demographic transition: population growth and fertility are in decline, and the disparities between the different areas of the Mediterranean are vanishing. Moreover, demographic transition automatically gives rise to an ageing population. While the varied populations of the Mediterranean are currently differentiated by their levels of ageing, it is inevitable that these levels will converge in the future. This paper studies this future convergence, including the hypothesis that the southern and eastern shores will catch up with the northern shore. It also envisages a potential challenge to the spatial dichotomy of demographic ageing in the Mediterranean. To this end, we will go beyond the national frameworks generally used for studies of the Mediterranean as a whole and examine each Mediterranean country at a sub national level. After creating demographic projections based on 4 prospective scenarios, we will use various methods (cartography, spatial statistics, etc.) to express how the southern regions will catch up, how the space will change, and how the spatial dichotomy of ageing in the Mediterranean will evolve.