Transportation Futures: Policy Scenarios for Achieving Greenhouse Gas Reduction Targets

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions must be reduced by 50% to 80% by 2050 in order to limit global temperature increase to 2°C. This research analyzes three scenarios: changes in the perceived price of travel; land-use intensification; and, increases in transit use. Elasticity estimates are derived using an activity-based travel model for the state of California and broadly representative of the U.S. The VISION model is used to forecast changes in technology and fuel options for the U.S., providing a life cycle GHG forecast for the road transportation sector. Results suggest that aggressive policy action is needed, especially pricing policies,as well as technical innovations. Medium- and heavy-duty vehicles are in particular need of additional fuel or technology-based GHG reductions.