A novel tree-based algorithm for real-time prediction of rockburst risk using field microseismic monitoring

Rockburst is a kind of complex and catastrophic dynamic geological disaster in the development and utilization of underground space, which seriously threatens the safety of personnel and environment. Due to the suddenness in time and randomness in space, the prediction of rockburst becomes a great challenge. Microseismic monitoring is capable to continuously capture rock microfracture signals in real time, which offers an effective means for rockburst prediction. With the explosive growth of monitoring data, the conventional manual forecasting methods are laborious and time-consuming. Therefore, artificial intelligence was introduced to improve prediction efficiency. A novel tree-based algorithm was proposed. Its basic idea was to automatically recognize precursory microseismic sequences for the real-time prediction of rockburst intensity. The database consisting of 1500 microseismic events was analyzed. To establish precursory microseismic sequences, dimensionality reduction of the database was first implemented by t-SNE algorithm. Then, k-means clustering algorithm was employed for labelling 1500 microseismic events. Before that, canopy algorithm was adopted to determine the number of clusters. Finally, 300 precursory microseismic sequences were formed by the grouping rule. They were further partitioned into two parts through stratified sampling: 70% for training and 30% for validation. The validation results indicated that the precursor tree with pruning achieved a higher prediction accuracy of 98.9% than one without pruning on the validation set. And the increase was separately 12.2%, 9.2% and 28.6% on the whole validation set and each classes (low/moderate rockburst). In comparison with low rockburst, moderate rockburst was minority class. The improved accuracy on moderate rockburst suggested that pruning can enhance the recognition ability of precursor tree for the minority class. Additionally, two extra rockburst cases were collected from a diversion tunnel in northwestern China, which provided a complete workflow about how to apply the built precursor tree model to achieve field rockburst warning in engineering practice. The tree-based algorithm served as a new and promising way for the real-time rockburst prediction, which successfully integrated field microseismic monitoring and artificial intelligence.