Prognostic utility of pre- and post-treatment FDG-PET parameters in anal squamous cell carcinoma

Abstract Background and purpose We prospectively assessed the contributions of PET to initial staging, early detection of treatment failures, and prognostication in patients with anal squamous cell carcinoma (ASCC). Materials and methods Consecutive patients with ASCC referred for radical chemoradiotherapy (CRT) consented to undergo FDG-PET imaging pre-treatment and at 3 and 6 months post-treatment. Clinicopathologic data were collected and CT and PET imaging reviewed for contribution to staging and recurrence detection. Maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax), peak standardized uptake value (SUVpeak), metabolic tumour volume (MTV), and total lesion glycolysis (TLG) were assessed for association with progression-free survival (PFS), cause-specific survival (CSS), and overall survival (OS) using the Kaplan–Meier and Cox regression models. Results Between 2009 and 2016, 73 patients with clinical stages I-IIIB ASCC completed curative-intent CRT. Median follow-up was 48 months. 14 patients died and 18 patients experienced disease progression. 4-year PFS, CSS, and OS were 73%, 87%, and 84%, respectively. A pre-treatment MTV >35 cm 3 predicted for worse PFS ( p  = 0.011) and CSS ( p  = 0.024) on univariate and multivariate analyses, employing an MTV definition of voxels ≥25% of SUVmax. Higher 6-month post-treatment SUVmax and SUVpeak predicted for worse PFS and OS ( p  ≤ 0.011). Pre-treatment SUVmax, SUVpeak, and TLG, and 3-month post-treatment SUVmax and SUVpeak did not significantly correlate with survival outcomes. Conclusions Our findings support that pre-treatment MTV provides meaningful prognostic information, with suggestion that an MTV delineation threshold of voxels ≥25% of SUVmax is appropriate in the anal region. Post treatment, the combination of clinical examination and PET effectively detected all treatment failures. Higher 6-month post-treatment SUVmax and SUVpeak predicted worse PFS and OS; however, the optimal timing of post-treatment PET imaging remains unclear.