Coal power overcapacity in China: Province-Level estimates and policy implications

Abstract Since the project approval right was decentralized from the central government to the local governments in 2014 in China, a large quantity of coal power projects has been approved and built, resulting in low operation efficiency and calling for strict de-capacity policy. In this paper, we estimate coal power overcapacity with a cross-province power and energy balance model. We estimate the overcapacity situation in 2015 at 140–160 GW with a comprehensive dataset. The 2020 overcapacity scenario is estimated with detailed representation of official planning and new projects under construction. The results show that there is a general trend of growing overcapacity in most provinces by 2020 and the national excess scale will be around 210 GW under the basic scenario and may even reach 240–260 GW under a High scenario. Relevant policy suggestions are put forward to address the overcapacity issue.