Economic feasibility of intensification of Macrobrachium rosenbergii hatchery

Inadequate seed supply remains a bottleneck for the expansion of the Macrobrachium rosenbergii production industry. Nevertheless, the limitation is not technical, and thus, we presumed that fragile production chains and economic feasibility might be the major issues. Therefore, we investigated the intensification as a way to improve the system's profitability and resilience. We have reported relevant costs and revenues of hypothetical hatcheries stocking 50, 100, and 140 larvae per L in clear water recirculating systems. A Monte Carlo simulation assessed the risks associated with development and management. Data showed that all hatcheries are profitable. Nevertheless, 100 and 140 larvae per L reached better economic results than 50 larvae per L. With less than 40% of the selling price, high‐density hatcheries covered their costs and became profitable. The Monte Carlo simulation demonstrated that high‐density hatcheries are more resilient to production and marketing oscillations. However, the use of 140 larvae per L requires greater investment and is more susceptible to production risks and instabilities. Therefore, 100 larvae per L is the most appropriate stocking density for M. rosenbergii hatchery in clear water recirculating systems. Additionally, the scaled production, the adoption of realistic selling price, diversification of products and markets may strengthen the production chain and hatcheries resilience.