Prognostic Factors Affecting Long-Term Outcomes After Elbow Dislocation: A Longitudinal Cohort Study

Purpose To describe patient-reported outcomes following simple elbow dislocation and to identify the baseline factors that predict outcomes. Methods Adult patients treated with a closed reduction for a simple elbow dislocation with or without minor fracture (coronoid avulsion, radial head fracture, or epicondyle avulsion) from 2000 to 2018 completed outcome instruments including Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand (QuickDASH) via Research Electronic Data Capture. Descriptive statistics were calculated. Univariate followed by multivariate Tobit regression models were used to determine factors associated with clinical outcomes on QuickDASH. Social deprivation was measured using the Area Deprivation Index. Patients with additional upper-extremity injuries or associated major fractures (Monteggia or terrible triad injuries, distal humerus fractures, etc) were excluded. Results At a mean follow-up of 67.5 months, 95% (38/40) of patients reported satisfaction with treatment, and clinical outcomes were good (QuickDASH 9.0 ± 14.8). Univariate analysis showed that higher Area Deprivation Index, older age, female sex, high-energy mechanism of injury, and worker’s compensation (WC) or Medicare insurance status (vs commercial) was associated with significantly worse QuickDASH scores at follow-up. Early therapy, dominant elbow involvement, presence of minor fractures (minimally displaced radial head, coronoid tip, or epicondylar avulsion fractures), race, and treating service did not influence outcomes in univariate analyses. Multivariate analysis demonstrated a significant association between increased social deprivation, WC insurance, and Medicare insurance and worse QuickDASH scores while controlling for new upper-extremity injury, age, sex, and mechanism of injury. Conclusions Outcomes and treatment satisfaction following simple elbow dislocation are generally good but are significantly worse for the patients with greater levels of social deprivation and WC or Medicare insurance. Although surgeons should be aware of the possibility that specific subsets of patients may benefit from early therapy, this factor did not appear to influence long-term outcomes in this small cohort. Type of study/level of evidence Prognostic III.