Forecasting the usage probability of VoIP by attributes of telephone service

This study proposes an adoption model for Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) with telephone service attributes as the predicative factors. We use survey data on descriptive preferences to predict the usage probability of VoIP in Taiwan. The proposed method compensates for the defects in most current forecasting methods, where the forecasting model cannot be built without historical data. Analytical results indicate that the public usage rate of VoIP in Taiwan is about 30%. The key factors influencing the usage probabilities include usage fees, set-up fees, security, and reliability. User requirements for low usage fees and high security are opportunities for VoIP service providers to expand the market, but the high set-up fees and unstable network environments are major barriers for VoIP promotion. Potential customers with the highest usage probability may be young, female, or highly educated.