Forecasting the 2018 February 12th CME propagation with the P-DBM model: a fast warning procedure

The forecast of the time of arrival of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) to Earth is of critical importance for our high-technology society and for any future manned exploration of the Solar System. We realized a procedure based on the Drag-Based Model which uses probability distributions, rather than exact values, as input parameters, and allow s the evaluation of the uncertainty on the forecast. We test ed this approach using a set of CMEs whose transit times are known, obtain ing extremely promising results. We realiz ed a real-time implementation of this algorithm which ingests the outputs of automated CME tracking algorithms as inputs to provide early warning for those CME approaching Earth . We present the results of this real-time fast warning procedure for the case of the 2018 February 12 th CME.