Management tool to avoid predictor having adverse effect on the production

Throughout the decades, the countless report has highlighted refineries being shut down due to the unforeseen circumstances. The unpredicted shutdowns are believed by many as gross negligence. This further strengthens that the measure taken was inadequate in holding off problems related to the operation of a refinery operating in Indonesia. Various theories proposed to offer answers to improve such conditions. Some question the sustainability of crude feed to the refinery. Thus, the feed supply is of a question mark. Resources of crude from the internal within the production area in Indonesia should have been managed to secure the feed supply. Simultaneously, the external source of crude should also be controlled by establishing long-term contracts with numerous multinational producers. Others might question, the technological aspects of the refinery. Whether or not the technology being applied is in accord with the latest development in refinery engineering. Another possibility is the discussion on the field of new investment. as general information, no new refinery has been built in the last 10 (ten) years in any place in Indonesia. The method to approach problems in our study is the multi-variable regression analysis. By using this method, different predictors collected from the data set can statistically be incorporated. Last but not least, the model developed from our study should be beneficial to the management or policy-makers as a predictive tool to maintain the desired level of operation of the refinery