Türkiye’de Kısa Vadeli Sermaye Akımlarının İktisadi Dalgalanmalar Üzerindeki Etkileri: Bir Uzun Dönem Kısıtlı SVAR Modeli (The Effects of Short-term Capital Flows on Economic Fluctuations in Turkey: A Long-run Restricted SVAR Model)

Turkish Abstract: Bu calismada finansal serbestlesme sonrasi donemde kisa vadeli sermaye akimlarinin, Turk ekonomisinde gozlemlenen iktisadi dalgalanmalar uzerindeki etkileri arastirilmaktadir. Calismada sermaye hareketlerinin etkilerine yonelik kuramsal aciklamalar ele alindiktan sonra, bu kuramlarin ortaya koydugu reel doviz kuru mekanizmasi Uzun Donem Kisitli Yapisal Vektor Otoregresyon (SVAR) modeli ile analiz edilmektedir. Turkiye’nin 1992:Q1- 2007:Q3 ucer aylik verileri cercevesinde yapilan analizde, kisa vadeli sermaye akimlarinin reel kur araciligiyla ekonominin reel kesiminde onemli dalgalanmalara neden oldugu saptanmistir. English Abstract: In this study, effects of short-run capital flows after the time of financial liberalization on the observed business cycles in Turkish Economy have been discussed. In the study, after theoretical approaches on the effects of capital flows had been mentioned, real exchange mechanism which is explained in the related theoretical approaches has been analyzed with a Long-run Restricted Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model. The quarterly data of Turkish Economy included a period of 1992:Q1 to 2007:Q3 have been used in the empirical model. Results of the empirical work show that short-run capital flows by exchange rate cause importantly cycles on real part of economy.