Evaluation of diagnostic results by Bayes' theorem

Application of Bayes' theorem for the evaluation of diagnostic results of electric facilities is described. A concept of risk assessment method based on the diagnosis results is proposed and the effects of various parameters on the risk are clarified. Based on these results, a rational renewal scheme using diagnostic results is proposed. In addition, the prior probability based on the data of actual facilities is investigated and it is found that the data available so far is insufficient and more data are required for the detailed analysis. © 2012 Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.