DISCUSSION PANEL REPORT: BUSINESS AVIATION

The panel found that there are a number of factors now at play in the business aviation sector and their effects suggest business aviation activity will continue to grow over the forecast period 1997-2002. These factors include: (1) the impact of new product introductions; (2) the trends in domestic and world economic growth; (3) the creation of new institutions which expand the business aircraft market and promote business aircraft use; and (4) the likelihood of only moderate increases in the cost of operating or using business aviation aircraft. These positive factors are complemented by emerging trends in the light general and personal aviation sector--trends that may increase the likelihood of continued growth of business aviation in the long term. In particular, the business aviation industry must recognize the efforts to increase piston aviation activity through the reintroduction of single-engine piston aircraft and programs being implemented to increase the private pilot population. The relationship between the general aviation segments may transmit very positive impact to the business aviation sector during the out-years of the forecast period and beyond, as piston activity recovers and the private pilot pool expands. The aging of the turbine fleet will put downward pressure on fleet utilization, but fleet growth will more than compensate for this, causing total hours flows to increase over the forecast period.