The Prospects of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC): The Importance of Understanding Western China

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) announced in 2015 is a $60billion package of Chinese-led investment in roads, railways, energy and industry in Pakistan. It is part of China’s new Eurasia-wide Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The likely impact of CPEC is controversial. Some scholars argue that CPEC will generate prosperity, regional equality and rapid economic growth in Pakistan. Others argue that CPEC will lead to debt and to the economic and political subordination of Pakistan to China. The existing discussion of CPEC has a near exclusive inward-looking focus on Pakistan. Some scholars, mainly from outside of Pakistan, have looked in more detail at China, but principally from an International Relations perspective. Missing from all of this discussion is how economic change in China, particularly in Western China, will influence the likely economic outcome of the CPEC. This paper makes an effort to start fill this gap. The paper demonstrates the likely competitive nature of the emerging economy of Xinjiang with that of Pakistan. Careful attention needs to be paid to the evolution of thinking and policy practice in Beijing.