Demand forecasting in pharmaceutical supply chains: A case study

Abstract Demand forecasting plays a critical role in logistics and supply chain management. In the paper, state-of-art methods and key challenges in demand forecasting for the pharmaceutical industry are discussed. An integrated procedure for in-market product demand forecasting and purchase order generation in the pharmaceutical supply chain is described. A case study for supply of pharmaceutical products from a wholesaler to a distribution company located in an emerging market is presented. Alternative forecasting scenarios for thebaseline demand calculations using the SMA model, multiple linear regressions and symbolic regression with genetic programming are experimentally investigated, and their practical implicationsare discussed.