Communicating Increased Risk: An Empirical Investigation of the National Weather Service’s Impact-Based Warnings

AbstractIn 2014, following a Central Region pilot assessment, the National Weather Service implemented large-scale use of an experimental product of enhanced severe weather warnings known as impact-based warnings (IBWs). The overarching goal of these IBWs is to improve the threat warning process and motivate appropriate responses by using event tags and additional text that provides more specificity about the magnitude of the storm and its potential consequences. These IBWs are designed to be used by individuals in the field to make more effective decisions. Although qualitative research has shown overall satisfaction with IBWs (Harrison et al. 2014; Losego et al. 2013), little published experimental research has been conducted on these new enhanced warnings. The research reported here therefore empirically investigates the effectiveness of the new IBW experimental product. In three experiments, participants adopted the role of a plant manager and read both IBWs and non-IBWs. At three different decision p...