Microsimulation of Health Expectancies, Life Course Health, and Health Policy Outcomes

Active life expectancy measures life expectancy and the proportions of remaining life with and without disease or disability. Microsimulation, a useful tool for life course research, estimates active life expectancy by simulating individual lifetime health biographies, where the individual’s status in one or more outcomes is known for each measured unit of life. In this chapter we describe how researchers use microsimulation to study active life expectancy, focusing on research of the past 20 years. We summarize the microsimulation process. We describe how researchers model current and future population health, calculate new active life expectancy measures, and forecast effects of policy change. We illustrate the application of microsimulation to active life expectancy research with a study of interval need, a measure of need for health care and other services focused on resource use. We describe strengths of microsimulation, considerations regarding its use, and directions for future research.