Quantification of bore path uncertainty in borehole heat exchanger arrays using adaptive anisotropic stochastic collocation

Abstract Borehole heat exchanger arrays have become a common implement for the utilization of thermal energy in the soil. Building these facilities is expensive, especially the drilling of boreholes, into which closed-pipe heat exchangers are inserted. Therefore, cost-reducing drilling methods are common practice, which can produce inaccuracies of varying degree. This brings into question how much these inaccuracies could potentially affect the performance of a planned system. In the presented case study, an uncertainty quantification for seasonally operated borehole heat exchanger arrays is performed to analyze the bore paths’ deviations impact. We introduce an adaptive, anisotropic stochastic collocation method, known as the generalized Smolyak algorithm, which was previously unused in this context and apply it to a numerical model of the borehole heat exchanger array. Our results show that the borehole heat exchanger array performance is surprisingly reliable even with potentially severe implementation errors during their construction. This, coupled with the potential uses of the presented method in similar applications gives planners and investors valuable information regarding the viability of borehole heat exchanger arrays in the face of uncertainty. With this paper, we hope to provide a powerful statistical tool to the field of geothermal energy, in which uncertainty quantification methods are still rarely used at this point. The discussed case study represents a jumping-off point for further investigations on the effects of uncertainty on borehole heat exchanger arrays and borehole thermal energy storage systems.