Forecasting System-Level Impacts of Technology Infusion in Ship Design

This study examines a methodology that can aid the decision maker in projecting the performance of future vessel concepts and in allocating the resources for technological research and development in an optimum way. The method is generic, and can be applied to any system that can be modeled mathematically, such as a naval surface combatant or submarine. The method combines system-level design parameters with technology impact assessment. The impact of technology is assessed through the use of technology k-factors through a design of experiments and response surface method that is coupled with a computational ship synthesis model to modify the technical characteristics or the cost parameters of the design. These modifications result in changes to the technical metrics used to simulate the hypothetical improvement or degradation associated with the new technology. This methodology is demonstrated through a technological impact assessment of the operational characteristics of a conventional submarine design.