THE ANALYSIS OF LONG-TERM PHENOLOGICAL DATA OF APRICOT TREE (PRUNUS ARMENIACA L.) IN SOUTHERN MORAVIA DURING 1927-2009

CERNA, H., BARTOSOVA, L., TRNKA, M., BAUER, Z., STĚPANEK, P., MOŽNÝ, M., DUBROVSKÝ, M., ŽALUD, Z.: The analysis of long-term phenological data of apricot tree (Prunus armeniaca L.) in southern Moravia during 1927–2009. Acta univ. agric. et silvic. Mendel. Brun., 2012, LX, No. 3, pp. 9–18 The relationship between apricot tree (Prunus armeniaca L., variety Velkopavlovicka) phenophases fi rst fl ower and full fl owering was evaluated in south Moravia region (161 a.s.l., 48°48´22´´N, 16°46´32´´E). The phenological data originated from Phenological year books for period 1927–1960 and was collected at various sites in southern Moravia. During 1961–2009 the phenophases were observed by only one observer each year at one experimental site (Lednice). The computer tool PhenoClim was used for calculation of the best combinations of temperature sum (T S ) and base temperature (T base ) as a predictors for onset of phenophases. Two diff erent method of calculation was set – fi rst is the thermal time model (TTM) and second use the simple sine wave method (SW method) of calculation T S . With using the T S and T base values the onset of phenophases was calculated for future climate conditions (2050 and 2100). The results showed fi rstly the reaction of phenophases to the changing climate during the last decades. The onset of fi rst fl ower has advanced by 11.2 days since 1961. In the next step the most likely combination of T S and T base was set by PhenoClim. The relationship between observed and modeled phenophases was evaluated by statistical parameter RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) which moved between 1.8 to 6.9 days for two phenophases and diff erent periods. In model the values of T S and T base were subsequently used for estimation of timing the phenophases of apricot tree in future climate conditions. The onset of fi rst fl ower and full fl owering of apricot tree could be advanced by 11–13 days in 2050 and by 22–25 in 2100. phenology, apricot tree, PhenoClim, base temperature, temperature sum