Spatio-temporal Dynamics of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus in

Abstract Although foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) incidence has decreased in South America over thelast years, the pathogen still circulates in the region and the risk of re-emergence in previously FMDV-free areas is a veterinary public health concern. In this paper we merge environmental, epidemiologicaland genetic data to reconstruct spatiotemporal patterns and determinants of FMDV serotypes A and Odispersal in South America. Our dating analysis suggests that serotype A emerged in South Americaaround 1930, while serotype O emerged around 1990. The rate of evolution for serotype O was signi cantlyhigher compared to serotype A. Phylogeographic inference identi ed two well-connected sub networksof viral ow, one including Venezuela, Colombia and Ecuador; another including Brazil, Uruguay andArgentina. The spread of serotype A was best described by geographic distances, while trade of livecattle was the predictor that best explained serotype O spread. Our ndings show that the two serotypeshave di erent underlying evolutionary and spatial dynamics and may pose di erent threats to controlprogrammes.Key-words: Phylogeography, foot-and-mouth disease virus, South America, animal trade.