II. Policies on exports of arms to states affected by the Arab Spring

The violent reaction to the Arab Spring in 2011—in particular the deaths of anti-government protesters in Bahrain, Egypt, Tunisia and Yemen and the more intense armed conflicts in Libya and Syria—involved the use of major conventional weapons and small arms and light weapons acquired from a number of supplier states.1 While the United Nations imposed an arms embargo on Libya and the European Union (EU) and the Arab League imposed arms embargoes on Syria, no other multilateral restraints were imposed on arms transfers to states affected by the Arab Spring.2 This section describes the immediate reactions of major suppliers to the Arab Spring and the debates on whether their governments had struck the right balance between security, commercial and human rights concerns when deciding whether to permit or deny arms exports. Despite widespread criticism by civil society and parliamentarians within many Western states and discussions between states, the impact of the Arab Spring on states’ arms export policies appears to have been limited. Russia has been a significant supplier to four of the states most affected by the Arab Spring: Egypt, Libya, Syria and Yemen (see table 6.5). It is the only major supplier discussed here that did not publicly announce a review of its arms export policy or a suspension of arms deliveries to the region. In March 2011 Anatoly Isaikin, the Director of Rosoboronexport—the agency responsible for managing the Russian arms trade—stated that the Arab Spring would not have a serious effect on Russia’s arms exports, since Russia did not have any deals in place ‘with the countries hit by the rioting’ and he saw no reason to suspend ongoing Russian transfers to Egypt.3 However, one Russian source has estimated that the Arab Spring could lead to Russia losing $10 billion worth of arms sales in the Middle East and North Africa.4 For example, it has been suggested that the imposition of the UN arms embargo on Libya in February 2011, which Russia supported, resulted in Russia losing contracts worth $4 billion.5 During 2011 there were limited