The relationship between liver stiffness measurement and outcome in patients with chronic hepatitis C and cirrhosis: a retrospective longitudinal hospital study

SummaryBackground There is a relationship between liver stiffness measurement (LSM) and outcome of HCV patients. Aim To evaluate the performance of LSM to predict outcome of HCV patients at risk of liver-related complication. Methods We established a retrospective longitudinal cohort of 341 HCV patients with unequivocal cirrhosis. All underwent LSM and were followed from September 2006 to July 2015. Outcome measure was a composite end-point of end-stage liver disease (ESLD) and/or hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Cox models and areas under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves were used to evaluate independent risk factors of outcome. Results Overall, LSM was below the 12.5 kPa threshold in 129 (37.8%) patients, including three-fourth and one-third of patients with or without a sustained virological response respectively. Liver disease progressed in 136 (39.9%) patients after a median observational period of 23.5 months. Older age, male gender, alcohol use disorders, metabolic syndrome and LSM were independent risk factors of liver disease progression. Age, alcohol use disorders and LSM were independently associated with ESLD. Age, gender and metabolic syndrome, but not LSM, were associated with HCC. The AUROC curves for disease progression, ESLD and HCC were 0.67, 0.70 and 0.58 respectively. Patients with a liver stiffness >12.5 kPa were at the highest risk of liver disease progression; below 12.5 kPa, liver stiffness was not discriminant. Conclusion Liver stiffness measurement is not a surrogate of disease progression of HCV patients with cirrhosis. HCV patients with cirrhosis should undergo the recommended follow-up, regardless of liver stiffness measurement.