Preoperative predictors of mortality risk in ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm

Abstract A retrospective review of 106 cases of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm was undertaken to determine whether analysis of preoperative variables might be predictive of death in this condition. Thirty variables were analyzed by univariate and multivariate methods. Statistically significant differences between survivors and nonsurvivors were noted for 12 of 30 factors when analyzed with univariate tests. Multivariate analysis with stepwise logistic regression demonstrated that elevation of the unmeasured anion gap, a history of congestive heart failure, and the patient's level of consciousness before operation were significantly and independently associated with death. Coefficients generated from this model allowed stratification of patients into four risk groups with respective mortality rates of 100%, 75%, 28%, and 12%. We conclude that it is possible to assign a mortality risk score to individual cases of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm on the basis of readily available clinical and laboratory parameters. A prospective study to address this question seems justified. (J VASC SURG 1987;6:583-9.)