Les négociations internationales sur le climat: un état des lieux après la Conférence de Cancún

Les negociations internationales sur le climat: un etat des lieux apres la Conference de Cancun Geert FREMOUT (*) & Vincent VAN STEENBERGHE (**) T Cancun Agreements confirm the common objective for limiting the average global temperature increase to maximum 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and lay the foundations of a process aiming at specifying national proposals for limiting emissions towards 2020. Visible progress has been made as regards a certain number of key issues, such as international financial support and deforestation. The Cancun Agreements thus put back to the forefront the role played by the United Nations by defining mechanisms and institutions which strengthen the international negotiation framework. However, this diplomatic success conceals the present lack of ambition from governments in the way of managing that global common good: the submitted national objectives are far from being coherent with the 2 °C-goal, even when the probability to achieve this goal is limited to 50 %. The too low emission reductions towards 2020, which imply unrealistic reduction rates after 2020, jeopardize the chances of achieving the goal. As a result, the next step will consist in strengthening the framework and the institutions which are being implemented. This implies among others the definition of a world emission path or of a world carbon budget that would be consistent with the common goal and shared among nations.