Training Effect Based Reasoning : Developing a next generation of training simulators

Current missions demand commanding officers and their staff to be trained in decision and/or sense making in a complex and adaptive environment. An important factor for success in many missions is winning the ‘hearts and minds’ of the local population. The amount of violence, aid given, the damage level, the economic situation etcetera all influence the population’s attitude towards Coalition Forces, National Forces/Government, Opposing Militia Forces, International Organizations (IO) and Non Governmental Organizations (NGO). However, today’s command and staff trainers hardly take these factors into account. This paper describes our research into a management game which aims to train effect based reasoning. Our game uses an agent based simulation model, used for modeling the ‘hearts and minds’ a population consisting of different factions. Playable roles are Coalition Forces, National Forces, Opposing Militia Forces and NGO/IO’s. The end goal of the game is to achieve a stable and self-sustaining country from which the Coalition Forces can withdraw minimizing the risk of a new failed state situation. Players must carefully choose their actions and observe and analyze the effects in the game. The presented model captures important aspects needed for training of staffs in cause and effect reasoning.