Research on Gas Emission Combination Forecast Method Based on Improved AHP

Three original forecast methods such as exponential prediction, hyperbola prediction and grey prediction were combined to propose a new method to improve the forecast accuracy of gas emission in coalmines considering three factors of those methods, which are stability, data utilization and appropriate time interval. The combination weights were determined by Improved Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). By using the combination forecast method to predict the gas emission of a coalmine in northwest of China as an example, the results appeared that this new method had a better accuracy and easy operation, comparing with the results of three original forecast methods. The method had a positive direct significance to gas emission prediction.