Evidence of bottom-up effects of climate on Japanese anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) in the western North Pacific

Elucidating the mechanisms of fluctuations in fish populations are key to sustainable fisheries management. However, limited data combined with climate variability and fishing further constrain our understanding of fish population dynamics. Fortunately, marine sedimentary archives of fish abundance and environmental changes in the past, may provide new insights into long-term fish population fluctuations. Here, we used 150-year sediment records of the abundance of Japanese anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) scales, phytoplankton, and zooplankton biomarkers, and δ15N data previously reported from the central Yellow Sea (YS). We discussed the linkages of the anchovy abundance to ecosystem structure and sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Principal component analysis (PCA) identified negative effects of strong stratification (higher δ15N) and high abundance of haptophytes (higher alkenone content) on the anchovy stock through our analytical period (~1860–2005 AD). In addition, we found positive relationships between the anchovy abundance and plankton productivity in proxies before the period of intense fishing (1860–1980 AD), indicating bottom-up processes affecting the anchovy stock. However, the bottom-up processes became unclear under excessive fishing. This was possibly due to overfishing becoming a major driver after 1980, thereby altering the cascading of the marine ecosystem towards a different structure. Climate variability seems to indirectly influence the anchovy stock through bottom-up control via a cascading effect from the changes in the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) or the Pacific North American pattern (PNAP). The impacts of these changes on the hydrodynamic features of YS in turn influence the productivity of plankton prey for the anchovy. Collectively, our findings suggest that synergistic effects of climate and fishing on the anchovy need to be paid greater attention. Our results also contribute to an improved understanding of fish population fluctuations in other seas.