Prospects for future changes in the hourly CO2 emission factor of electricity generation: a case study for France

This case study investigates the long term hourly CO2 emission factor of electricity in France. The use of such indicators has been largely promoted but in practice estimates are usually based on average values and fixed emission factors extrapolated from today’s power mix. Our question of interest is the dynamic of the CO2 content of the electricity and the variability of seasonal and hourly estimates for different long term scenarios. The methodology combines demand load curves, availability factors of variable renewable energy sources (VRES), competing plant technologies and an optimization model of investment and operation decisions.