Empirical Findings from Agricultural Expansion and Land Use Change in Brazil

Agricultural production will play an increasing role in the development of renewable energy sources. Modeling land use changes due to agricultural conversion continues to be a challenge. This chapter contributes by demonstrating an improved methodology to empirically determine elasticities used to compute land use change. It presents an updated land use section of the Brazilian Land Use Model, using secondary economic data, remote sensing information, and improved allocation methodology, especially with extensive margin effects, to better capture multicropping systems, livestock dynamics, and land use dynamics. It shows improved ways for economic and geospatial models to interface with each other, a necessary step in quantifying impacts of dynamic processes. The results of the simulations confirm that agriculture will continue to convert native vegetation, but sugarcane has very little direct impact on natural vegetation due to demand being met through pasture intensification. Also, deforestation rates will decrease compared to those in the past. Finally, policies to ensure compliance with agricultural intensification and guarantees from farmers of compliance with Brazilian forest regulations will be necessary to complement market forces and technological advances in biofuel crop production.