Identification of the Optimal Passenger Car Vehicle Fleet Transition for Mitigating the Cumulative LifeCycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions until 2050

We present an optimization model for the passenger car vehicle fleet transition—the timedependent fleet composition—in Germany until 2050. The goal was to minimize the cumulative greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the vehicle fleet taking into account lifecycle assessment (LCA) data. LCAs provide information on the global warming potential (GWP) of different powertrain concepts. Metaanalyses of batteries, of different fuel types, and of the German energy sector are conducted to support the model. Furthermore, a sensitivityanalysis is performed on four key influence parameters: the battery production emissions trend, the German energy sector trend, the hydrogen production path trend, and the mobility sector trend. Overall, we draw the conclusion that—in any scenario—future vehicles should have a plugin option, allowing their usage as fully or partly electrical vehicles. For short distance trips, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) with a small battery size are the most reasonable choice throughout the transition. Plugin hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) powered by compressed natural gas (CNG) emerge as promising longrange capable solution. Starting in 2040, longrange capable BEVs and fuel cell plugin hybrid electric vehicles (FCPHEVs) have similar lifecycle emissions as PHEVCNG.