Cost-effectiveness microsimulation of catheter-directed thrombolysis in submassive pulmonary embolism using a right ventricular function model

Approximately 30–50% of hemodynamically stable patients presenting with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) have evidence of right ventricular (RV) dysfunction. These patients are classified as submassive PE and the role of reperfusion therapy remains unclear. We sought to identify the circumstances under which catheter-directed thrombolysis (CDT) would represent high-value care for submassive PE. We used a computer-based, individual-level, state-transition model with one million simulated patients to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis comparing the treatment of submassive PE with CDT followed by anticoagulation to treatment with anticoagulation alone. Because RV function impacts prognosis and is commonly used in PE outcomes research, our model used RV dysfunction to differentiate health states. One-way, two-way, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were used to quantify model uncertainty. Our base case analysis generated an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $119,326 per quality adjusted life year. Sensitivity analyses resulted in ICERs consistent with high-value care when CDT conferred a reduction in the absolute probability of RV dysfunction of 3.5% or more. CDT yielded low-value ICERs if the absolute reduction was less than 1.56%. Our model suggests that catheter-directed thrombolytics represents high-value care compared to anticoagulation alone when CDT offers an absolute improvement in RV dysfunction of 3.5% or more, but there is substantial uncertainly around these results. We estimated the monetary value of clarifying the costs and consequences surrounding RV dysfunction after submassive PE to be approximately $268 million annually, suggesting further research in this area could be highly valuable.