Multi hazards risk assessment of Indian Sundarbans using GIS based analytic hierarchy process (AHP)
2021
Abstract The people of Sundarbans are well experienced with multiple hazards affected their life and livelihood since the incitation of 1st civilization over here. Low lying delta plain and massive population pressure increases the exposure limit of this area. For saving this valuable ecosystem and millions of people living here coastal planners and decision makers require a comprehensive risk assessment of this area. Present study applied a GIS based analytic hierarchy process (AHP) for assessing risk of Indian Sundarbans at a micro regional scale (1 km2). Total 4989 grids have been generated and all calculations were made at a grid level scale. Fourteen factors representing forcing (4), vulnerability (8) and exposure (2) of this area were used for the calculation. All factors were categorized into 5 point risk classes based on their relative contribution to the risk. Risk has been represented at grid level and consequently at mouza (lowest revenue unit) level scale for representing the area and populations under certain risk categories. The results showed that around 26% (11.3 lakh) and 23% (9.9 lakh) populations of Indian Sundarbans are under high to very high risk categories. Major parts of Basanti, Gosaba, Hingalganj, Canning-I, Canning-II, Jaynagar-I, Jaynagar-II, Sandeshkhali-I, Sandeshkhali-II are belongs to the high-very high risk classes. Higher effective sea level rise, lower tidal range, high population densities are associated with higher risk of these areas. The risk map provides essential information for identifying relative risk of an area which can be used for future management and planning.
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