WALL STREET VIEW: AIRLINE REVENUE-GAINS UNSUSTAINABLE

The article's aim is to determine whether a sequential rise in airline revenue during summer of 2003 was seasonal or cyclical. Using the Air Transportation Association (ATA) Morgan Stanley Equity Research revenue data, the article quantitatively determined how much of the recent revenue trend was seasonal or due to cyclical or other factors. The results of the analysis strongly suggest that the summer rebound is unsustainable. The revenue strength during last June-August as seen to reflect seasonality, pent-up demand following the war and SARS as well as simulated demand from huge price discounting.