An analysis on epidemiological characteristics of bacillary dysentery in Jiashan county, Zhejiang province, 1995-2008.

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and incidence trend of bacillary dysentery in Jiashan county from 1995 to 2008.Methods The characteristics of bacillary dysentery were described and analyzed by descriptive study method.Rotundity distribution was used to analyze the incidence peak and the index-curve model was simulated to forecast the incidence rate of bacillary dysentery.Results Average incidence rate of bacillary dysentery was 31.13/100 000 and it was higher in farmers and uninstitutioned children at the region of emigrants.The period of high incidence was in summer and autumn and the peak of incidence rate was on August 25.The equation of index-curve forecast model was established as Y^=e290.879-0.144x.Conclusion Measures aimed at farmers,uninstitutioned children and high incidence seasons of summer and autumn should be taken into consideralion in preventing and controlling the outbreak of bacillary dysentery.