The diffusion of wind propulsion technologies in shipping: an agent-based model

International shipping accounts for around 80% of global trade and is therefore critical to global economy. Carbon emissions from international shipping are expected to increase significantly in line with the global trade. A range of niche technologies developed for ship propulsion provide solutions to reduce shipping CO2 emissions. However, these technologies face barriers that limit their diffusion. This paper focuses on the Flettner rotor technology through a transition perspective. An agent based model is developed to explore the diffusion of Flettner rotors in time charter drybulk shipping to 2050, under imperfect agent information and split incentives barriers that current shipping models omit. Simulation results are more conservative compared to those models. In the “business as usual” scenario, barriers impact the technology diffusion rate and its timing, even on shipping routes or geographical niches with favourable wind conditions. Further exploration of simulation scenarios reveals that the introduction of carbon pricing, or demonstration project policies, increases technology diffusion and delivers a modest CO2 emissions reduction to 2050. The carbon pricing and demonstration project policies are found to work in a complementary way that greatly increases the effect of either policy introduced in isolation.