Application of Stochastic Simulation Method in Reliability Assessment of a PV-Wind-Diesel-SOFC Hybrid Microgrid

 Abstract—In this paper, the sequential monte carlo simulation method is used to obtain the reliability indices of an isolated hybrid microgrid consist of diesel generator (DG), solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC), wind turbine generator (WTG), and photovoltaic system (PV). Some atmospheric data such as wind speed, solar irradiation, and ambient temperature data are used to achieve the output power of WTG and PV systems which can be obtained by two method; collecting data from weather station or using the computer programs. For this purpose, Weibull distribution is used. To obtain the adequacy model of DG and SOFC, a two state reliability model is used. A combination of this model and output power formulation is also used to achieve the generation model of WTG, and PV systems. Furthermore, the total generation model is compared with IEEE reliability test system (IEEE RTS) load model and the reliability indices are then achieved, which show the effectiveness of the SMCS method in reliability evaluation of both stable and unstable resources like WTG and PV. In this paper, a microgrid including some renewable energy supplies such as PV, WTG, SOFC, and DG with different configurations are studied to evaluate the system reliability indices. To model DG and SOFC, a two-state model is employed. To model the availability of PV and WTG, a combination of the two-state model and their inherent characteristics should be used. To evaluate the microgrid reliability indices, the IEEE RTS load model (9) is compared with the developed generation model. There are two reliability evaluation approaches: deterministic and probabilistic (10). The deterministic approaches cannot identify the random behavior of the microgrid systems. To calculate the reliability indices of both stable and unstable resources like WTG and PV, the generation and load models are applied to the sequential MCS, as a probabilistic approach. The work in this study is organized as follows: in Section 2, the electrical output power of wind system is modelled. The delivered output power of the PV system is formulated in Section 3. The adequacy assessment methodology of the microgrid system is introduced in Section 4 consist of microgrid generation and the load demand models. Section 5 is dedicated to present some case studies. Conclusion and future considerations are summarized in the last section of the paper.