Global Patterns and Trends in Gastric Cancer Incidence Rates (1988-2012) and Predictions to 2030

Abstract Background & Aims The long-term trend in gastric cancer rates has rarely been reported from a global perspective. We aimed to explore the past temporal trends (1988-2012) in gastric cancer incidence rates in 43 countries and to predict future trends (2012-2030). Methods Data on yearly gastric cancer incidence by age group and sex were drawn from 108 cancer registries in 43 countries in the CI5plus database. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) per 100,000 persons were computed from 1988 to 2012. The number of new cases and incidence rates were predicted to 2030 using the Bayesian age–period–cohort (BAPC) model. Results Persistent decreasing trends in gastric cancer incidence rates were observed from 1988 to 2012 worldwide, with an overall average annual percent change (AAPC) of -2.1% (95% CI: -2.5, -1.7). The trends will continue or remain stable until 2030 in most of the selected countries except for Ecuador and Lithuania, whose gastric cancer incidence rates will experience substantially increasing trends in the next several decades. Conclusion The incidence rates of gastric cancer are expected to decrease through 2030 in most countries except Ecuador and Lithuania. Reductions in smoking and H. pylori prevalence and improvement in diet probably contributed to the decrease. Gastric cancer still represents a major cancer burden worldwide, and the large number of gastric cancer cases worldwide may still call for lifestyle interventions in terms of smoking and diet and massive efforts for H. pylori screening and treatment, especially in countries with predicted increasing incidence rates of gastric cancer.