Statistical validation of a voyage simulation model for ocean-going ships using satellite AIS data

In the second generation intact stability criteria being discussed by the International Maritime Organization, a ship can be operated even though it fails to pass the vulnerability criteria of dynamic stability failures, as far as operational limitations are imposed to guarantee the required safety level of the ship. This is a new concept that has not been implemented in previous intact stability criteria. Voyage simulation is the most effective assessment tool to facilitate the discussion of the new operational limitations, and its model needs to be developed and validated for ocean-going ships in various cases. In this study, statistical validation of a voyage simulation model is attempted by comparison against numerous actual voyages collected from satellite automatic identification system data. The validation results showed that the simulated results of navigation in the North Pacific and North Atlantic are similar to those of actual voyages. Furthermore, to improve the reproducibility of the simulation in rough seas, a wave limit criterion was derived by comparing the probability density of the actually encountered and occurred wave heights of the navigable area. Introducing the wave limit criterion improved the correlation of the encountered wave height during the voyage.